百合股份（603102）：战略转型致短期承压，跨境并购赋能长期发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation that is causing short-term pressure but is expected to empower long-term development through cross-border mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. - The company has a strong presence in the nutritional health product industry, with nearly 20 years of R&D and production experience, and offers comprehensive contract manufacturing services [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 871 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 801 million yuan for 2024A, followed by 944 million yuan in 2025E, 1,421 million yuan in 2026E, and 1,687 million yuan in 2027E [1][10]. - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be 20.1% for 2023A, -8.0% for 2024A, 17.8% for 2025E, 50.4% for 2026E, and 18.8% for 2027E [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 169 million yuan in 2023A to 139 million yuan in 2024A, before recovering to 152 million yuan in 2025E, 205 million yuan in 2026E, and 245 million yuan in 2027E [1][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 11.2% in 2023A to 8.7% in 2024A, before gradually increasing to 12.5% by 2027E [1][10]. Business Segment Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.06%. The contract manufacturing segment showed resilience with a revenue of 366 million yuan, up 10.71% year-on-year, while the self-owned brand segment saw a decline of 33.61% [2][3]. - The company launched a new brand, focusing on a strategic shift towards scientifically-based health products, aiming to build a unique nutritional health system for Asian consumers over the next decade [2]. Cost and Investment Insights - The company is increasing its costs and investments for transformation, which has led to a short-term pressure on profits. The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 36.22% and 17.10%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 74 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, indicating a stable operational condition [3]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The company completed a cross-border acquisition of 56% of Ora for 67 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its overseas supply chain and accelerate international expansion [4]. Ora reported a revenue of 42.28 million New Zealand dollars in 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 102.34% [4].