劲仔食品（003000）：调整阶段，业绩承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.124 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 112 million yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 528 million yuan, a decline of 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, down 36.3% year-on-year [1] - The growth of fish products remains steady, while the growth rate of quail eggs has slowed down due to intense competition and brand switching [2] - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to reduced scale effects and increased costs of small fish, with a gross margin of 28.9% in Q2 2025, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 are 2.463 billion yuan and 263 million yuan, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.065 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.2% [4] - The gross margin is expected to be 28.2% in 2023, with a gradual increase to 31.4% by 2027 [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.58 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.50 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 17.4% in 2025, increasing to 21.4% by 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded into modern channels, although the marginal benefits from these channels have diminished in the first half of 2025 [2] - The focus on core products and new product launches, particularly in the konjac category, is seen as a key driver for future growth [2]