BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Huafu Securities·2025-09-01 12:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company's main business in the liquor sector is currently undergoing adjustments, with a notable decline in revenue. However, there is optimism regarding the growth potential of the whiskey segment, which is expected to drive future growth [2][4]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.489 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.56% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on a strategic layout that includes stable pre-mixed drinks, growing whiskey sales, and synergy in the flavor business, with expectations for new product launches to stimulate growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 71.00%, a slight decrease of 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, while maintaining a net profit margin of 27.62% [3]. - The revenue from the liquor product segment was 1.297 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.35% year-on-year, while the flavor business generated 169 million yuan, down 3.91% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, reaching 491 million yuan, an increase of 67.06% year-on-year [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026, now estimating net profits of 797 million yuan and 951 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.087 billion yuan [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.76 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.04 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 37x, 31x, and 27x [4][6].