泸州老窖（000568）：Q2降速调整，新兴渠道表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 12.41 billion, 13.37 billion, and 14.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -7.86%, 7.72%, and 8.93% [4] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, a decline of 7.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33% year-on-year, while the average price per ton of liquor decreased by 4.66% [2] - Emerging channel revenue grew significantly, with traditional and emerging channel revenues at 15.465 billion and 932 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -3.99% and +27.55% [2] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 50.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.529 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 87.09%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 46.57%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2025 reported a gross profit margin of 87.86% and a net profit margin of 43.23%, with tax and additional charges accounting for 15.39% of total revenue, an increase of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 63.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 88.320 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]