Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Guohai Securities·2025-09-01 14:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company's growth is driven by Douyin and distribution channels, but increased expenses are putting pressure on profitability [3][7]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.22% [6][10]. - The company is focusing on a full-category layout and aims for long-term growth through product differentiation and quality enhancement [10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, online revenue reached 4.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with Douyin contributing significantly [7]. - Offline distribution revenue was 938 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, while store revenue decreased by 18.7% [7]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.08%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [7][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth, with projected revenues of 12.534 billion yuan, 14.779 billion yuan, and 16.739 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 18%, and 13% [9][10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 230 million yuan in 2025, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [9][10]. - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency and exploring self-branded lifestyle stores to improve its offline presence [10].