四川路桥(600039):业绩短期承压,订单增长支撑长期韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but order growth supports long-term resilience [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.063 billion, 9.060 billion, and 10.129 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.83%, 12.37%, and 11.80% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.34, 8.31, and 7.43 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 43.536 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, with net profits of 2.780 billion and 2.720 billion RMB, down 13.00% and 13.72% respectively [8] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the exit of certain subsidiaries and transitional impacts in the engineering construction sector [8] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 14.50%, down 1.38 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Segments - Revenue from engineering construction, trade sales, and highway investment operations in H1 2025 was 38.836 billion, 3.201 billion, and 1.345 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -7.08%, +221.99%, and -3.96% respectively [8] - The company has seen significant growth in trade sales, while engineering construction has faced challenges due to complex project conditions [8] Order Growth and Market Expansion - The company reported a rapid increase in orders, with a total new bid amount of approximately 72.2 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.20% [8] - The company has successfully expanded into international markets, including signing projects in Kuwait and achieving breakthroughs in Ethiopia and Malaysia [8] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 116.654 billion, 128.453 billion, and 138.946 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 8.78%, 10.11%, and 8.17% [7][10] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.063 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 11.83% [7][10]