Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on September 1st, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. In terms of cost, the price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, while mica prices fell. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production slightly decreased, with little change in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. Downstream demand showed an increase in the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week, an increase in the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate in September, and an increase in the production of power batteries last week. Terminal demand saw a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. Inventory showed a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and social inventory, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. Overall, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and the reduction of social inventory, both short - term supply and demand are strengthening. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market is still easily influenced by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Data - Futures Prices: On September 1st, 2025, compared with August 29th, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased, with decreases ranging from 1,460 to 1,700 yuan. The overall closing price decreased by 1,620 yuan. [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 540,295 lots (+50,237), and the open interest was 339,133 lots (-7,472). [3] - Inventory: The inventory was 31,197 tons (+1,310). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory also showed certain changes, with a decrease of 407 tons in the total inventory compared with the previous week. [3] - Price Spreads: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) increased by 320 yuan. The price spreads between different grades of lithium compounds also changed, such as the battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread increasing by 1,050 yuan. [3] - Raw Material Prices: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars per ton, while the prices of various types of mica decreased. [3] - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and some types of electrolytes remained stable or decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors increased slightly. [3] Company News On September 1st, Tianqi Lithium (002460) stated in its 2025 semi - annual performance briefing that it has completed the industrialization preparations for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation all - solid - state batteries. The company's 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan, using self - developed new technologies and equipment with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities. [3] Market Analysis - Cost: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, but mica prices fell. [3] - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate slightly decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little. [3] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. [3] - Inventory: Registered warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. [3] Investment Strategy It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [3]
碳酸锂日评:波动仍大,持仓注意保护-20250902