Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:04Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance from August 30th for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are several利多 factors, including the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5]. - There are also利空 factors such as the repetition of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5]. Group 3: Summary by Content Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 273,240 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.98%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.2% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Tin Futures盘面 Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin continuous 3 are all 273,240 yuan, 273,240 yuan, and 273,510 yuan respectively, with a daily change of 0. The price of LME Tin 3M is 35,060 US dollars per ton, with a daily increase of 110 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.31%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.81, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6]. Tin Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly increases. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,500 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [11]. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 20,376.73 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 3,089.77 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 17.87%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan per ton and 10,050 yuan per ton respectively, with no daily change [13]. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,215 tons, a daily decrease of 58 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.8%. The LME tin inventory is 2,010 tons, a daily increase of 115 tons and a daily increase rate of 6.07% [16].