Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for soybeans has both weak supply and demand. With the upcoming new - season harvest, price pressure is increasing. Regular auctions are effectively increasing the current supply, and discounted auctions are impacting the spot price system. The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face pressure from the new - season harvest, making it difficult for prices to rise. The futures market shows an unchanged bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Risk Strategies for Soybeans - Inventory Management for Sellers: For planting entities with a large demand to sell newly harvested soybeans in autumn but facing significant short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits. Also, when there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% ratio at a price of 50 - 60 to increase the selling price [2]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: When worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, as the probability of price decline is high, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and pay attention to long - term procurement management. Focus on the A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for price guidance in autumn [2]. 3.2 Price Analysis - Technical and Trend Analysis: The technical side shows significant pressure, and the bearish trend remains unchanged. From August 29, 2025, to September 1, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean futures contracts increased slightly. For example, the A2511 contract rose from 3945 to 3965 (a 0.51% increase), the A2601 contract rose from 3948 to 3964 (a 0.41% increase), etc. [5]. - Likely Influencing Factors: - Positive Factors: The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders' inventory clearance may be low, which limits the price decline. In September, the concentrated consumption scenarios are gradually recovering, and the demand for edible consumption is expected to pick up. The short - side positions have decreased, driving the futures price to rebound [6]. - Negative Factors: The quality and yield of the new - season soybeans are expected to improve, and the concentrated supply will be the main driving factor for the fundamentals, continuously pressuring prices. Regular auctions are continuously supplementing the current market supply, and low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains [6].
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250902