Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:14Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Before the Fed's next interest rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, with the upper limit around SHFE 80,500/LME 10,000. A low - level purchasing strategy is maintained in the fourth quarter [3]. - The core contradictions affecting copper prices include Fed rate cuts (medium - term bullish), rising domestic spot premiums with copper prices (short - term bullish), relatively low SHFE copper positions (short - term bearish), slightly low refined - scrap spreads (short - term bullish), tight supply (short - to medium - term bullish), and a downward domestic demand outlook (medium - term bearish) [3]. Summary by Content Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - Price Volatility: The latest copper price is 79,780 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.40%, and the historical percentile is 3.3% [2]. - Risk Management Suggestions: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of SHFE copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory, buy 75% of SHFE copper main futures contracts around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Price Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: Rising copper spot premiums with prices, slightly low refined - scrap spreads, and tight supply. SMM expects a 5.25 - ton drop in September electrolytic copper production and low output in October [3]. - Bearish Factors: Relatively low SHFE copper positions, and potential negative impacts from the US copper tariff policy leading to extremely high COMEX inventory [3][4]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 79,780 yuan/ton with no daily change. LME copper 3M is 9,875 dollars/ton, down 0.31% [2][4]. - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,900 yuan/ton, 80,010 yuan/ton, 79,810 yuan/ton, and 80,090 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases [10]. Copper Inventory Data - SHFE Warehouse Receipts: The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,200 tons, down 5.66% [17]. - LME Inventory: The total LME copper inventory is 158,875 tons, down 0.02% [19]. - COMEX Inventory: The total COMEX copper inventory is 277,843 tons, up 2.34% week - on - week [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit is 217.18 yuan/ton, down 20.18% [20]. - The copper concentrate TC is - 41.27 dollars/ton, with no change [20].