JAC(SH:600418) Huachuang Securities·2025-09-02 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -770 million yuan, down 10.7 billion yuan year-on-year [2][4]. - Despite the pressure on Q2 earnings, the report remains optimistic about the development of the "Zun Jie" brand, particularly the S800 model, which has shown strong order performance [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: The total revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted from 47.5 billion, 60 billion, and 71.5 billion yuan to 50.7 billion, 67.2 billion, and 86.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 33%, and 29% respectively [2][8]. - Net Profit Forecasts: The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 has been revised from -60 million yuan to -630 million yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts have been increased to 1.57 billion and 4.53 billion yuan respectively [2][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to improve from -0.82 yuan in 2024 to 2.07 yuan in 2027 [4][8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price target is set at 68.64 yuan, with a current price of 54.22 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 27% [4][8]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 118.42 billion yuan and a circulating market value of the same amount [5]. Sales and Production Insights - In Q2 2025, the company sold 91,000 vehicles, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, with a notable decline in passenger vehicle sales [2][8]. - The "Zun Jie" S800 model has received over 12,000 pre-orders, showcasing strong market demand and resilience [2][8]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the "Zun Jie" brand could position the company as a high-return, competitive player in the luxury vehicle market, with potential net profit margins significantly higher than competitors like Porsche [2][8]. - The long-term revenue forecast for the company's self-owned business is projected at 47.4 billion yuan, while the "Zun Jie" business is expected to generate a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan by 2027 [2][8].