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兴业银行(601166):业绩增长改善,零售不良压力减轻

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have shown improvement, with a slight increase in net profit of 0.21% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 2.29% [2][5] - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.54% [4][27] - The bank is experiencing increased pressure on net interest margins, which recorded 1.75% in the first half of 2025, down 5 basis points from the first quarter of 2025 and 7 basis points from 2024 [2][17] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the bank achieved revenue of approximately 1104.58 billion yuan, with net interest income of 737.55 billion yuan, accounting for 66.77% of total revenue [2][13] - Non-interest income decreased by 3.80% year-on-year to 367.03 billion yuan, but the decline was less severe than in the previous quarter [3][20] - The bank's total assets grew by 2.55% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 4.3% and 9.6%, respectively [21][24] Asset and Liability Analysis - Total liabilities increased by 2.42% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 8.9% [4][26] - The bank's deposit structure has improved, with the proportion of deposits in interest-bearing liabilities rising to 63% [4][26] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio for retail improved to 1.22%, down 13 basis points from the end of 2024, while corporate non-performing loans increased to 1.08% [27][29] Profitability Forecast - The bank's net profit is expected to grow by 0.72%, 2.69%, and 3.12% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][33] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 3.67 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.94 [7][33]