NKF(SH:603707) Ping An Securities·2025-09-02 08:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its U.S. formulation segment, while its biosimilars are entering a period of significant market release [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 1.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, down 29.32% year-on-year, which was slightly below previous expectations [3][7] - The company is focusing on expanding its biosimilar pipeline and has received multiple approvals from the U.S. FDA and the National Medical Products Administration of China [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.93 billion yuan in 2023, 3.92 billion yuan in 2024, 4.29 billion yuan in 2025, 4.95 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.64 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3% expected in 2025 [6][10] - The net profit is projected to be 826 million yuan in 2024, 753 million yuan in 2025, 866 million yuan in 2026, and 1.08 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 15% expected in 2026 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to be 43.2% in 2024, 41.3% in 2025, 43.1% in 2026, and 44.6% in 2027 [6][10] Segment Performance - The company's heparin raw material revenue was 291 million yuan in the first half of 2025, down 45% year-on-year, while the formulation revenue was 1.66 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, with the U.S. formulation platform Meitheal generating 1.14 billion yuan, a 20% increase [7][8] - The company has increased its R&D investment to 433 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 21.85% of revenue, which is a 126.55% increase year-on-year [7][8] Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on overseas formulation sales and expects biosimilars to provide a new growth curve, maintaining its "Recommended" rating despite slight underperformance in the first half of 2025 [7][8]