股指日报：红利指数走势逆转，市场情绪拐头？-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The trend of the dividend index reversed today, with the banking sector leading the rise and the dividend index rising 0.52%, performing best among domestic important stock index trends. Except for IH, other stock index futures showed volume - increasing declines, indicating mainly short - position additions. Market sentiment changed today. With a military parade tomorrow, there are large differences between bulls and bears in the market. To avoid the risk of market pull - back, short - position hedging increased in the futures market. Meanwhile, funds were more allocated to defensive high - dividend industries, and there were signs of profit - taking in the previously popular TMT industry, with the electronics, communication, and computer industries leading the decline. Although there were changes in market sentiment, trading volume remained high. Except for the basis of some IH contracts declining, the overall discount of other stock index futures narrowed. So, it's hard to say that the short - term outlook has turned optimistic and needs to be verified in the following trading days [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed a volume - increasing oscillation today, and large - scale indexes had different performances. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.74%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 1250.31 billion yuan. In the futures market, IH rose with increasing volume, while other stock index futures declined with increasing volume [4] Important Information - As of the morning of September 2nd, the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September had risen to 89.6% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.72 | 0.35 | - 1.80 | - 1.85 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 19.5366 | 8.0614 | 17.2836 | 33.7746 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 5.1069 | 2.6017 | 4.6175 | 8.5941 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 29.8335 | 10.9749 | 25.4784 | 40.1271 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 2.1717 | 1.2783 | 1.8794 | 2.6043 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.45 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 2.14 | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 0.26 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 28749.91 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | 1250.31 | [9]