YTO(SH:600233) Changjiang Securities·2025-09-02 09:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.8% to 970 million yuan. The company continues to gain market share despite intensified competition, and its cost control measures have shown resilience in net profit per parcel, which only decreased by 0.01 yuan quarter-on-quarter. The ongoing "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry are expected to enhance profitability during peak seasons [2][4]. Summary by Sections Q2 Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 18.82 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 970 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year. The market share continued to rise, with parcel volume increasing by 21.8% to 8.08 billion parcels, and market share up 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% [2][4]. Cost Management - The company's single parcel cost decreased by 0.10 yuan quarter-on-quarter, with transportation and sorting costs at 0.34 yuan and 0.25 yuan respectively, showing significant optimization. The company has improved vehicle loading quality and utilized an intelligent scheduling system to enhance operational efficiency [10]. Profitability - The single parcel gross profit decreased by 0.05 yuan year-on-year, while the net profit per parcel remained stable at 0.13 yuan, indicating operational resilience amid competitive pressures. The company’s net profit from express delivery was 1.04 billion yuan, down 9.1% year-on-year [10]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 1.62 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition and declining profits. Capital expenditure was approximately 2.31 billion yuan, up 77.7% year-on-year, aimed at steady capacity expansion [10]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, with a clear trend of price increases across the industry. The integration of AI in logistics is expected to enhance overall management capabilities, and the company is actively pursuing international expansion [10]. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.39 billion yuan, 4.97 billion yuan, and 5.43 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.7, and 10.7 [10].