Zhonggu Logistics(SH:603565) Changjiang Securities·2025-09-02 09:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - In Q2, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million yuan, an increase of 42.5%. The non-recurring net profit was 380 million yuan, up 172.9% year-on-year. The high demand for external chartered ships has led to a tightening of domestic supply, improving both supply and pricing [5][11]. - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of 84.3% and an annualized dividend yield of 8.2%, emphasizing shareholder returns [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 41.6%. The non-recurring net profit was 820 million yuan, an increase of 94.3% [5]. - In Q2, the company recorded a gross margin of 21.0%, an increase of 12.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the contribution from external chartered ships [11]. Market Dynamics - The external chartered ship market remains robust, with charter rates for 4,400 TEU vessels averaging 54.6k USD/day in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%. This has allowed the company to enhance its capacity deployment in the foreign trade market [11]. - Domestic shipping demand has shown signs of improvement, with container throughput in the first two quarters recording year-on-year changes of +2.1% and -2.1%, respectively. The domestic shipping price index has also improved significantly [11]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong domestic shipping peak season in Q4, which is expected to release performance elasticity. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.14 billion, 2.43 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.3, 9.0, and 8.8 times [11].