Montage Technology(SH:688008) Guoyuan Securities·2025-09-02 11:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 130 CNY per share, indicating an upside potential to 145 CNY per share [5][12][14]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 58.17% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 2.633 billion CNY, with a net profit growth of 95.41% to 1.159 billion CNY [1][7]. - The DDR5 penetration rate has improved from 50% to 80%, contributing to a revenue increase in DDR memory interface and supporting chips, which accounted for 93.5% of total revenue [2][8]. - The PCIe retimer segment has emerged as a key growth driver, with a revenue increase of 119% year-on-year, and the company is expected to increase its market share from 12% to 14% [2][9]. - The CXL MXC chip market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 169% from 2025 to 2030, with the company’s 3.x version expected to enter mass production in the second half of next year [2][10]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 60.44% and a net margin of 42.24%, with gross profit margins expected to remain high due to the increasing proportion of second and third-generation products [1][7][8]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.484 billion CNY and 2.966 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 57x and 48x [4][12]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 5.803 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 59.5% [4][12]. Market Potential - The CKD chip is anticipated to become a standard product in desktop memory platforms, with a projected market size of approximately 238 million USD by 2030 [3][11]. - The MRCD/MDB second-generation products are expected to gain support from Intel and AMD platforms, with significant market growth anticipated by 2027-2028 [10][11].