LZLJ(SZ:000568) Western Securities·2025-09-02 13:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and net profit at 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has set a goal for stable revenue growth despite the current weak consumption environment in the liquor industry [2][5] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales showed resilience, with a 13.33% increase in volume to 24,100 tons, while other liquor categories saw a decline in both volume and revenue [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 91.03%, while the gross margin for other liquor categories fell by 10.55 percentage points to 44.33% [1][2] Channel Performance - Traditional channels saw a revenue decline of 3.99% to 15.465 billion yuan, while emerging channels experienced a growth of 27.55% to 0.932 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for traditional channels decreased by 1.69 percentage points, while emerging channels improved by 4.52 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to stabilize its revenue and maintain a focus on high-quality development, with an EPS forecast of 8.52, 9.04, and 9.72 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][4] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 50.72% to 3.53 billion yuan by the end of H1 2025, indicating a positive outlook for future revenue [2]