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银轮股份(002126):25Q2业绩符合预期,全球布局+第三曲线打开长期空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a 2025 H1 revenue of 7.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 441 million yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.751 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.8% [5][7] - The company is experiencing growth across its business segments, with the passenger vehicle segment showing a revenue increase of 20.5% year-on-year, while the digital and energy thermal management segment grew by 58.9% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in new growth areas [7] - The company has a global presence, with significant revenue growth in Europe (43.76% year-on-year) and North America (7.24% year-on-year), supported by new projects and production capacity improvements [7] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 15.008 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 997 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.2% [6][9] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 19.2%, with a net profit margin of 6.2%. The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio to 10.6%, indicating improved cost control [7] - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025-2026 due to lower-than-expected sales from certain passenger vehicle clients, with revised net profit estimates of 997 million yuan for 2025 and 1.288 billion yuan for 2026 [7]