M&G(SH:603899) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-02 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24][27] Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year revenue decline narrowing to single digits. For H1 2025, revenue was 10.81 billion yuan, down 2.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 12.0% [1][3] - The traditional core business experienced a slight decline, while online sales maintained positive growth. The revenue from traditional core business in H1 2025 was down 7.2% year-on-year, with specific declines in writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies [1][3] - The company is actively expanding its IP strategy and overseas markets, achieving overseas revenue of 560 million yuan, up 15.9% [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year [1][3] - The gross margin for Q2 was 18.3%, down 0.34 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in profitability from direct sales and retail stores [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.43 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, with a diluted EPS of 1.55, 1.72, and 1.91 yuan [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.42 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [4] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 19.9, 18.0, and 16.2 respectively [4][25]