隆基绿能（601012）：前期布局迎收获，硅片组件亏损收窄

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to recover from its operational low point, driven by the successful launch of new products and a focus on BC technology, which is gaining recognition in the global market [4][3] - The company has shown a significant reduction in losses, with a notable improvement in gross and net profit margins in the recent quarter [2][1] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 129.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 and 2025, with revenues of 82.6 billion CNY and 67.6 billion CNY respectively, before recovering to 81.9 billion CNY in 2026 and 95.4 billion CNY in 2027 [1][10] - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2026, with a projected net profit of 2.76 billion CNY and 4.84 billion CNY in 2027, following losses of 8.6 billion CNY in 2024 and 4.19 billion CNY in 2025 [1][4] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a reduction in sales and management expenses by 37% and 23% respectively [3] Product and Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved silicon wafer shipments of 52.08 GW, with a 70% year-on-year increase in overseas sales [2] - The company’s new N-type silicon wafer product has achieved a 90% penetration rate in external sales, contributing to a narrowing of losses in the silicon wafer segment [2] - The battery module segment also showed improvement, with a gross margin turning positive and a reduction in loss per watt to approximately 0.03 CNY [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 67.6 billion CNY, 81.9 billion CNY, and 95.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits projected to be -41.9 billion CNY, 27.6 billion CNY, and 48.4 billion CNY [4] - The report forecasts an EPS of -0.55 CNY in 2025, improving to 0.36 CNY in 2026 and 0.64 CNY in 2027 [4]