荣盛石化（002493）：盈利短期承压，静待炼化复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.53 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 148.63 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.60 billion CNY, down 29.82% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 73.65 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 8.12% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.76% [2]. - The report highlights that the company is currently facing short-term profit pressure but is expected to benefit from a recovery in refining and chemical sectors in the future [2][6]. - The company is actively working on capacity expansion projects, including a 250,000-ton functional polyester film expansion project and a 1.4 million-ton ethylene and downstream chemical facility, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [2][6]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, projecting net profits of 2.30 billion CNY, 4.26 billion CNY, and 5.29 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42x, 23x, and 18x [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 326.48 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to decline to 297.01 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.0% decrease [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 724 million CNY in 2024, with a significant rebound to 2.30 billion CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 217.6% [2][8]. - The company’s gross margin for refining products is reported at 22.59%, while the chemical products margin stands at 12.08%, indicating a mixed performance across segments [2][6]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 97.60 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 91.47 billion CNY [3]. - The asset-liability ratio is reported at 75.12%, indicating a high level of leverage [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from industry reforms aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated capacity, which could enhance its profitability in the long run [2][6]. - The ongoing projects and strategic initiatives are expected to strengthen the company's market position and operational efficiency [2][6].