中泰期货原糖周报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental situation of the log market is in a weak and volatile state. The supply side has not improved significantly, the demand is weak but with limited downward space, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price is affected by weak transactions, and the disk is mainly affected by funds and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to observe the disk in the short term [6][9][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - Supply - side: The next - week port arrival is expected to increase, but the supply side has not improved for the time being. The import volume of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and spruce has decreased to varying degrees. Affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the increase in foreign - market quotes, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed, and the port arrival volume in August is not expected to increase significantly [6][7]. - Demand and Inventory - side: The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but with limited space. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually. The total port arrival is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. With the decrease in port arrival this week, the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust [8][9]. - Price and Spread: The foreign - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the spot price is relatively stable as the peak season approaches. The subsequent increase in foreign - market prices may support the domestic spot. The disk is mainly affected by funds and commodity sentiment and shows a volatile trend. The spot spread is relatively stable [10][11][13]. - Cost and Profit: The foreign - market quotes have rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamental situation is still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the log profit and sawn - timber profit are expected to show a weak trend [14][15]. - Strategy Recommendation: The fundamental situation is in a volatile state. The spot price is adjusted due to weak transactions. It is recommended to observe the disk in the short term [16][17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a weekly log balance sheet from June 6, 2025, to August 29, 2025, including data on port arrival numbers, port arrival volumes, daily average log outbound volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and tree species, and supply - demand differences [18][20]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side: It includes aspects such as New Zealand log shipment volume, log import, and import by tree species, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [25][26][28]. - Demand - side: It involves the daily average log outbound volume and the real - estate market, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [34][35][37]. - Log Downstream Analysis: It includes the price and profit analysis of sawn - timber, the analysis of downstream substitutes (aluminum alloy), but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [42][43][49]. - Inventory - side: It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [58][59][61]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - Log Import Cost and Profit: The import cost and profit of logs are involved, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [72][73]. - Log Delivery Profit: The delivery profit of logs is involved, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [78]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log Foreign - market Quotes: The foreign - market quotes of logs are involved, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [83][84]. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices: The price seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is presented through graphs, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [87]. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads: The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is involved, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [90]. - Radiata Pine and LG Basis: The basis between radiata pine and LG is involved, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [96]. - LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread: The seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the LG main contract are presented through graphs, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [98].