一汽解放（000800）：重卡龙头，出海带动增量市场

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 8.69 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.17 CNY [5]. Core Views - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, and the continuous growth in overseas markets is expected to enhance the profitability of the company [2]. - The company is a leading player in China's commercial vehicle sector, with a projected net profit of 523 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 2.769 billion CNY by 2027 [11]. - The company is expected to sell 250,000 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with a market share of 26.6% in the medium and heavy truck segment [11]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, and aims to establish subsidiaries in eight countries to support its international strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 64.325 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 58.581 billion CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 68.167 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 806 million CNY in 2023 to 622 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 2.769 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.16 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.13 CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 0.56 CNY by 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Forecast - The average selling price of commercial vehicles is expected to remain stable from 2025 to 2027, while sales volume is projected to decline by 5% in 2025 but recover with a 10% growth in 2026 and 2027 [13]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 6.27% in 2024 to 9.92% by 2027, driven by cost control and increased sales [14]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the natural gas heavy truck market, with a projected sales volume of 57,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the domestic heavy truck market, having maintained the top market share for nine consecutive years [11]. - The company is recognized for its strong product capabilities, with advanced manufacturing standards in its engine and transmission systems [11]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while the company faces challenges from industry competition, its vertical integration and product strength provide a competitive edge [11].