盐湖股份（000792）：2025年半年报点评：钾肥景气周期售价上升，公司业绩同比大幅增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a decline in potassium chloride sales volume, the increase in selling prices has led to significant year-on-year growth in the company's performance [8][10]. - The company achieved a net profit of 2.515 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, while revenue decreased by 6.3% to 6.781 billion yuan [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the strong profitability of the company's main products and its active expansion in the lithium salt sector, which is expected to drive continuous growth [13][30]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.781 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.515 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [6][8]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride increased by 26.0% year-on-year to 3,019 yuan/ton, despite a 20.5% decline in sales volume to 1.7779 million tons [8][17]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate decreased by 27.5% year-on-year to 60,300 yuan/ton, with sales volume remaining stable [8][17]. Market Trends and Price Changes - The average market price of potassium chloride in Q2 2025 was 2,994 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.7% increase from the previous quarter [10][12]. - The report notes that the price negotiations for potassium fertilizer imports have reached an agreement at 346 USD/ton CFR, which corresponds to approximately 3,000 yuan/ton including tax, providing strong support for domestic prices in the second half of the year [8][10]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.714 billion yuan, 18.308 billion yuan, and 19.432 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.688 billion yuan, 6.673 billion yuan, and 7.098 billion yuan [13][30]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in production capacity in the lithium salt sector, which is expected to contribute to sustained revenue growth [12][30].