兴业银行（601166）：新拐点、新目标，价值银行启新篇

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the market's previous concerns regarding the company's risks and performance have been alleviated, indicating a clearer outlook for the bank's fundamentals and asset structure transformation [7][9]. - The bank's management has effectively addressed risks in key areas, leading to a significant reduction in non-performing loans, particularly in the real estate sector, with a 46% year-on-year decrease in new non-performing loans in the first half of 2025 [22][25]. - The bank is expected to achieve stable profit growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 1.7%, 4.8%, and 5.9% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [9][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue is projected to be 210,831 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 212,493 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.13% [6]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 78,532 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.72% [6]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.37% in 2025, with a non-performing loan ratio stabilizing at around 1.07% [6]. Risk Management and Performance Improvement - The bank has effectively managed risks associated with real estate and local government financing platforms, reducing their exposure significantly from 10% of total assets in 2021 to approximately 7.5% in the first half of 2025 [22]. - The management team has demonstrated a commitment to improving operational quality, which has resulted in a positive turnaround in profit growth, with the first half of 2025 showing a profit increase ahead of expectations [32][33]. Dividend and Investment Appeal - The bank has a consistent history of increasing its dividend payout ratio, which is expected to reach 30.2% in 2024, making it attractive to long-term investors seeking stable returns [6][9]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is only 0.57, indicating that the bank is undervalued compared to its peers, which enhances its appeal to institutional investors [8][10].