森麒麟（002984）：业绩短期承压，下半年销量有望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.83 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 19.37 CNY [1][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but sales are expected to improve in the second half of the year [1]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.119 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 672 million CNY, down 37.64% year-on-year [5]. - The increase in raw material costs has put pressure on the profit margins, with a gross margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2025, down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in tire production and exports, with a projected increase in sales due to the ramp-up of the Morocco factory and a recovery in the full-steel product cycle [5][6]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 1.52, 1.91, and 2.20 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 11.7%, 14.4%, and 10.2% for the same period [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.119 billion CNY and a net profit of 672 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline in net profit [5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.6%, down from the previous year, indicating pressure from rising raw material costs [5]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company completed a tire production of 15.5695 million units in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, but the sales volume is expected to improve with the new factory in Morocco coming online [5][6]. - The report notes that the production and export of rubber tires in China have shown stable growth, with a 2.0% increase in production and a 5.5% increase in exports in the first half of 2025 [5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target price of 24.83 CNY based on a 13x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's strong earnings potential compared to peers [8]. - The company is positioned well with its global production capacity and is expected to continue expanding its market share [5][8].