GONGNIU(SH:603195) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-03 14:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and profit due to a challenging consumer environment, but it managed to increase its market share in core categories, demonstrating operational resilience [1][2] - The traditional business experienced slight declines, while the new energy business showed steady growth, with a revenue increase of 33.5% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is actively incubating new businesses and accelerating international expansion, with significant partnerships established in the data center sector and a growing presence in solar lighting and new energy solutions [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.17 billion yuan, down 2.6%, and a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan, down 8.0% [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 4.25 billion yuan, down 7.4%, with a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, down 17.2% [1] - The core categories saw an increase in market share despite the overall decline in revenue and profit [1] Business Segments - Electrical connections revenue in H1 2025 was 3.66 billion yuan, down 5.4%, while smart electrical lighting revenue was 4.09 billion yuan, down 2.8% [2] - The new energy business generated 390 million yuan in revenue, up 33.5%, with over 30,000 offline terminal points developed in the C-end market [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin in Q2 2025 was 43.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the net margin was 25.5%, down 3.0 percentage points [3] - The sales expense ratio decreased to 7.0%, primarily due to reduced marketing and advertising expenses [3] Future Outlook - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 4.38 billion yuan, 4.70 billion yuan, and 5.10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a growth of 2.5%, 7.4%, and 8.5% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19.4, 18.1, and 16.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]