Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-04 02:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant drop in US stocks and a sharp increase in European and American long - term bond yields, led to an over - rise, and the price fell during the daytime. Considering tight supply and the US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.39%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.3% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Agreement on tariff policies, increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a lower US dollar index and higher non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rising lower support level [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: Uncertain tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 0.56% to 80,110 yuan/ton; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was at 80,010 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M was at 9,974 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [4]. - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 80,520 yuan/ton, 80,435 yuan/ton, 80,280 yuan/ton, and 80,580 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.45%, 0.41%, 0.39%, and 0.44% [7]. Copper Scrap and Refined Copper Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,762.98 yuan/ton, down 4.81%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,503.8 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Warehouse Receipts: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 19,471 tons, down 0.15%; the total International Copper warehouse receipts are 5,422 tons, down 3.13% [14]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, down 0.13%; the COMEX copper inventory is 284,400 tons, up 4.52% [16][17]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 53.18 yuan/ton, down 116.83%; the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [18].