YTL(SZ:000960) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-04 03:14Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation is almost certain, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, but weak demand causes the total inventory of tin ingots at home and abroad to increase month - on - month, which may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 265,000 - 270,000 and the pressure level around 276,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,300 - 34,000 and the pressure level around 35,000 - 36,000 for London tin [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Supply - side - Andrada Mining's second concentrator in Namibia started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons [1] - In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines paid fees to resume mining, with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period [1] - Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa, with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and power system repair taking more than 3 months [1] - Thailand's suspension of Myanmar tin ore transit exports to China in June may affect 500 - 1,000 metal tons, which may increase (decrease) China's tin ore production (import) in September [1] - The domestic tin concentrate processing fee fluctuates and declines, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [1] - China's recycled tin production in September decreases month - on - month [1] - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi decline (remain flat) compared with last week [1] - Yunnan Tin will conduct a shutdown maintenance of smelting equipment for no more than 45 days starting from August 30 [1] - China's refined tin production (inventory) in August decreases (increases) month - on - month [1] - Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by corruption investigations, which may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, but its September exports may decrease month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's refined tin imports (exports) in September [1] - The refined tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - China's tin ingot social inventory decreases compared with last week [1] - The refined tin inventory in the London Metal Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - The total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory increases compared with last week [1] Demand - side - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding tape decreases month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in September [1] - China's welding tape imports (exports) in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [1] - China's tin - plated sheet production (imports, exports) in September may decrease month - on - month [1] - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate declines compared with last week [1] Market Data - Shanghai Tin Futures - On September 3, 2025, the closing price was 273,980, down 860 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,585 lots, up 1,086 from the previous day; the open interest was 34,947 lots, down 948 from the previous day; the inventory was 7,263 tons, up 144 from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai tin basis was - 480, up 460 from the previous day; the difference between the near - month and the first - continued contract was - 320, down 100 from the previous day; the difference between the first - continued and the second - continued contract was - 200, down 110 from the previous day; the difference between the second - continued and the third - continued contract was 60, up 110 from the previous day [1] - London Tin Futures - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures was 34,620, down 115 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87, down 53.01 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 242, down 59 from the previous day [1] - The global inventory of LME tin was 2,195 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the registered warrants were 1,985, unchanged from the previous day; the cancelled warrants were 210, unchanged from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai to London tin prices was 7.89, unchanged from the previous day [1]