STO(SZ:002468) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-04 03:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18][22] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 is under pressure due to price competition, but there is optimism for profit recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1][2] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 25.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 436 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.17% [1][7] - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a slight decline, with a total business volume of 6.54 billion pieces in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.0% [1][15] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted, with net profits expected to be 1.29 billion yuan in 2025, 1.63 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.90 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 26%, and 17% respectively [3][18] - The company's capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 1.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [2][17] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 741 million yuan, showing a decline primarily due to price reductions and growth in large customer business [2][17] Market Position and Strategy - The company has implemented a strategy of following market pricing trends, resulting in a decrease in average express delivery prices to approximately 1.97 yuan per piece, down 2.5% year-on-year [1][15] - The company’s network capacity is expected to improve, with daily throughput capacity projected to reach 90 million pieces by the end of 2025, up from 75 million pieces at the end of 2024 [1][15] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20X for 2025 and 16X for 2026 [3][18] - The company’s estimated revenue for 2025 is 53.54 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of approximately 3.2% [4][20]