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天山铝业(002532):H1电解铝量稳价增,电解铝产能仍有增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [10] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's H1 2025 revenue increased by 11.19% year-on-year to 15.328 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.51% to 2.084 billion yuan. The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 47.09% to 3.280 billion yuan [1][2] Production and Sales Summary - The production volume of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 remained stable at 585,400 tons, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1.1999 million tons. The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum rose by approximately 2.8% to 20,250 yuan per ton, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina increased by about 6% to 3,700 yuan per ton [2][3] - The external sales volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, and the external sales volume of alumina rose by about 7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's total revenue was 15.328 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.100 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The revenue contribution from various segments was 65.26% from raw aluminum, 24.20% from alumina, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, 6.89% from aluminum foil, and 1.55% from other segments [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 33.874 billion yuan, 35.207 billion yuan, and 37.396 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.594 billion yuan, 4.858 billion yuan, and 5.233 billion yuan for the same years [10][12]