STO(SZ:002468) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-09-04 07:52Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6][10][57]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is facing short-term profit pressure due to price wars, but the potential for improvement is significant with the implementation of anti-involution policies [6][10][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in e-commerce and the expansion of the return goods market, maintaining a structurally favorable demand environment [11][12][56]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 53.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.33% [7][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.40 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.25% [7][57]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.91 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.07 [7][57]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading franchise-based express delivery service provider in China, with a focus on enhancing its operational foundation through direct management of transfer centers and network expansion [12][16]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic shift from price competition to value competition, which is anticipated to improve profitability as the industry moves towards anti-involution measures [12][56]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported capital expenditures of 884 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, indicating strong confidence in future growth [22][56]. - The company aims to increase its daily throughput capacity to over 90 million parcels by the end of 2025, driven by ongoing investments in infrastructure and technology [11][22][56].