丙烯产业风险管理日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening due to the maintenance of some external devices, while the long - term devices will gradually resume production, and new devices from Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical are to be put into operation. Currently, the 01 contract is still relatively far away, and market participation is low [3]. - Bullish factors include the rising crude oil risk premium caused by the Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue, providing cost support, and the strong operation of overseas propane prices. In the Shandong market, the maintenance of Zhenhua's 750,000 - ton PDH, Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH, and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH has reduced the overall external supply, and the supply - demand situation is more tense than in August [4]. - Bearish factors include the addition of PP maintenance devices in Jinneng and Yulong this week, which will lead to some propylene external supply and narrow the supply - demand gap. The PP supply is at a high level, while downstream demand is limited, causing some enterprises to stop PP production and release propylene. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has shrunk to 165 yuan/ton, lower than the processing cost. There are rumors that OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0646, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.0625 [2]. 3.2 Propylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about propylene price decline (long spot exposure), they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) on rallies according to their inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6700) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and hoping to purchase based on orders (short spot exposure), they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) on dips to lock in procurement costs through on - disk procurement, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 6,300 - 6,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. 3.3 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream Prices: On September 3, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.39/barrel, down $1.68 from the previous day and up $0.19 from the previous week; WTI crude oil was at $63.77/barrel, down $1.85 from the previous day and down $0.09 from the previous week. Other upstream prices also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream Prices: The mid - stream propylene prices in different regions and related price differences are presented. For example, the price in the Shandong market on September 3, 2025, was 6,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 70 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Downstream Prices: The downstream product prices such as polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and epoxy propane also had corresponding price changes. For example, the price of polypropylene powder was 6,780 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Profits: The profits of different production processes and products in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 795.66 yuan/ton, down 30.27 yuan from August 27 [8]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between upstream and downstream products and different contracts are also provided. For example, the spread between PP01 and PL01 was 539 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 38 yuan from the previous week [8].