LPG产业风险管理日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the LPG market is mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwining to influence the market; the fundamentals have not changed much [4]. - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil [5]. - Against the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand for crude oil, there is still downward pressure in the future; the domestic fundamentals remain loose, with few refinery overhauls and a relatively abundant supply of liquefied gas; there is not much change on the demand side; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.15% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long in the spot market), to prevent inventory depreciation losses, companies can short PG2510 futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 4400 - 4500; they can also sell the PG2510C4500 call option to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 60 - 80 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short in the spot market), to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising PG prices, companies can buy PG2510 futures at lower prices on the market to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 4200 - 4300; they can also sell the PG2510P4200 put option to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 20 - 30 [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Aggregation - Various price data including Brent, WTI, MOPJ M1, MOPJ spot, NWE NAP M1, NWE NAP spot, etc., show daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent was at 67.39 on September 3, 2025, down 1.68 from the previous day and up 0.19 from the previous week [8]. - There are also data on spreads, such as FEI - MOPJ M1, NWE C3 - NAP, etc., and their corresponding daily and weekly changes [10]. - Information on monthly spreads like LPG08 - 09, LPG09 - 10, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Ratio data including MB/WTI, FEI/Brent, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Data on both盘面 and spot profits, such as盘面import profit - FEI, Asian naphtha cracking profit, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Freight data including the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10].