Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-04 09:49Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The decline in the BDI shipping market widened this week. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices continued to fall, with the decline exceeding 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index continued to narrow. Only the BHSI freight rate index maintained a sharp increase. The demand for large ships has reached saturation, but the significant increase in agricultural product shipments, especially from Uruguay, may be an early stockpiling measure in response to US tariff policies, which supports the demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with August 27th data, on September 3rd, the BDI composite freight rate index continued to weaken with an enlarged decline. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices' declines both exceeded 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index narrowed. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1940 points, down 5.18% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 2773 points, down 7.23% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1719 points, down 8.27% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1467 points, up 1.38% week - on - week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 788 points, up 5.77% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - Compared with September 2nd, on September 3rd, the FDI composite index turned down. The only rising route was the capesize ship rental freight route from Australia to Zhoushan, China, with the freight increasing 0.03% on the day. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1329.93 points, down 1.3% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1622.47 points, down 1.89% month - on - month; the capesize ship rental index closed at 1674.63 points, down 2.55% month - on - month; the panamax ship rental index closed at 1516.52 points, down 2.37% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rental index closed at 1658.87 points, down 0.53% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1134.9 points, down 0.74% month - on - month [9]. 3.1当日发运国发运用船数量 - On September 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 44 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 22 ships, Uruguay used 4 ships, and Australia used 0 ships. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 59 ships, Guinea used 27 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 21 ships, South Africa used 18 ships, Brazil used 7 ships, and the US used 10 ships [16]. 3.2当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 18 ships were used for corn, 25 for wheat, 27 for soybeans, 14 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 109 ships were used for coal, 65 for iron ore, and 13 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipments, the most required were post - panamax ships (39), followed by super - handy ships (26), and then handy ships (20). For industrial product shipments, the most required were large capesize ships (76), followed by post - panamax ships (63), and then super - handy ships (57) [17]. 4.主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The weekly data showed that the number of ships docked at all ports increased month - on - month, with the most obvious increase in Australian ports. The early - September data showed that "one port decreased, two ports increased". The number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 7 month - on - month, the number of ships at Australian ports decreased by 1 month - on - month, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports increased by 1 month - on - month [18]. 5.运费与商品价格的关系 - On September 3rd, Brazilian soybeans were at $39/ton, and on September 4th, the near - term shipping quote was 3993.74 yuan/ton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $25677/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $121.6/kiloton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13519/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 542.08 yuan/ton. On September 3rd, the handy - sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 774.4 points, and on August 29th, the CFR price of 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $116/cubic meter [22].