Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term, London gold and silver weekly lines continue to close with large bullish candles, indicating a strong pattern. London gold has broken through the 3450 - 3500 resistance and can be further expected to reach 3700. London silver has broken through the 39.5 - 40 integer - level resistance, and the next target is raised to the 44 - 45 area. Short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of economic data fluctuations on precious metal prices. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips, and existing long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated and adjusted. The US dollar index slightly declined, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased, European and American stocks generally rebounded, Bitcoin dropped, and crude oil was weak. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3602.4 per ounce, down 0.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.315 per ounce, down 1.77%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 812.98 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 0.14% [2]. - The US ADP employment data and weekly initial jobless claims released on Thursday evening provided evidence for cooling the US job market and boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak corporate employment and high prices [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest - rate cuts within the year continues to rise. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September is 0.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 99.4%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 44.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.3%. In December, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 48.4% [2]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.3 tons to 982 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.8 tons to 15230.6 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 32.9 tons to 1259.9 tons per day; as of the week ending August 29, the SGX silver inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 1283.6 tons per week [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus This week's data is intensive, and the focus is on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday [3]. 3.4 Price Table - The latest price of SHFE gold main continuous contract is 812.98 yuan per gram, down 1.9 yuan, or 0.23%. The latest price of SGX gold TD is 809 yuan per gram, down 0.97 yuan, or 0.12%. The latest price of CME gold main contract is $3602.4 per ounce, down $17.3, or 0.48%. The latest price of SHFE silver main continuous contract is 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 47 yuan, or 0.48%. The latest price of SGX silver TD is 9770 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan, or 0.1%. The latest price of CME silver main contract is $41.315 per ounce, down $0.495, or 1.18%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 87.1935, up 0.6185, or 0.71% [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The SHFE gold inventory is 43254 kilograms, up 3003 kilograms, or 7.46%. The CME gold inventory is 1211.7239 tons, unchanged. The SHFE gold position is 136664 lots, down 5666 lots, or 3.98%. The SPDR gold position is 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons, or 0.23%. The SHFE silver inventory is 1259.949 tons, up 32.91 tons, or 2.68%. The CME silver inventory is 16093.3703 tons, up 41.8578 tons, or 0.26%. The SGX silver inventory is 1283.61 tons, up 1.755 tons, or 0.14%. The SHFE silver position is 248568 lots, down 22024 lots, or 8.14%. The SLV silver position is 15230.565366 tons, down 50.8324 tons, or 0.33% [13]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 98.2917, up 0.1316, or 0.13%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1419, up 0.0022, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 45621.29 points, up 350.06 points, or 0.77%. The WTI crude oil spot price is $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49, or 0.77%. The LmeS copper 03 price is $9891.5 per ton, down $82.5, or 0.83%. The 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.17%, down 0.05%, or 1.18%. The 10Y US real interest rate is 1.79%, down 0.03%, or 1.65%. The 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, down 0.03%, or 4.92% [17].