Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:52Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. Overall, the future operating rate of industrial silicon may peak, reducing the risk of inventory accumulation and supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months as enterprise profits improve and production schedules are raised. If supply decreases and polysilicon demand increases, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. - Factors Affecting Price - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment, limited downward space for costs, and strong demand. Negative factors include potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration or production cuts in the polysilicon industry [7][8]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production schedule of polysilicon enterprises in September is expected to increase, exacerbating the supply - side surplus. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also pressures the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production pace of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow. Terminal demand lags, and high inventory restricts the demand for polysilicon [10]. - Long - term Outlook - If major enterprises reach effective integration agreements, the current "over - capacity and price involution" situation may improve, fundamentally repairing the supply - demand pattern [10]. 3. Section Summaries Industrial Silicon - Risk Management Strategy - Price Forecast - The strong support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 77.6% [2]. - Procurement Management - For products with no price correlation, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 7900 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options (SI2511 - P - 8200) can be sold. For products with price correlation, 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold according to the procurement progress, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the procurement cost [2]. - Sales Management - 20% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the sales profit [2]. - Inventory Management - 10% - 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 20% - 40% of call options (SI2511 - C - 9200) can be sold [2]. - Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8515 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The trading volume is 371805 lots, with a weekly increase of 9.69%. The open interest is 277305 lots, with a weekly decrease of 5.17% [12]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1.15% [13]. - Spot Data - The prices of 99 and 553 industrial silicon in different regions are mostly stable, while the prices of 421 in some regions have decreased by about 100 yuan/ton in a week [18]. - The price of trichlorosilane is 3375 yuan/kg, the N - type polysilicon price index is 51.13 yuan/kg, the price of DMC is 10650 yuan/ton, and the price of alloy ADC12 is 20750 yuan/ton [18][20]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, a decrease of 276 lots from the previous period [35]. - The basis of the main contract of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions shows seasonal characteristics [29][30][31]. Polysilicon - Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52195 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%. The trading volume is 268080 lots, with a weekly decrease of 28.76%. The open interest is 145950 lots, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [36]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, with a weekly decrease of 0.15% [36]. - Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feedstock, N - type dense material, etc., have increased by about 2 - 2.5 yuan/kg in a week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the photovoltaic industry have also changed slightly [41]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1065 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16.39% [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, unchanged from the previous day [53].