通威股份（600438）：25Q2环比减亏，“反内卷”有望提升硅料价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year increase in losses in the first half of 2025, but a quarter-on-quarter reduction in losses in Q2 2025. The photovoltaic segment showed stable shipments, and the company is actively preparing new battery technologies. The "anti-involution" trend is expected to significantly boost silicon material prices, with attention on profit recovery in the second half of 2025 [3][8] - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to -1.30, 0.48, and 1.05 RMB, respectively, from previous estimates of 0.84 and 1.48 RMB for 2025-2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2026-2027 are projected at 46.0 and 20.9 times [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40,509 million RMB, a decrease of 7.51% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -4,955 million RMB, reflecting an increase in losses compared to the previous year [9][8] - The company achieved a global market share of approximately 30% in polysilicon sales, maintaining the top position globally, with battery sales of 49.89 GW and module sales of 24.52 GW in the first half of 2025 [8][9] Market Trends - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to create a multi-layered governance system that promotes orderly development and healthy competition in the industry. As of late August 2025, silicon material prices rose to 46,000 RMB per ton, up from 35,000 RMB per ton at the end of June 2025, indicating a significant price increase [8][9] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including projected revenues of 106,193 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 15.4%. The EBITDA is expected to be 4,819 million RMB, with a net profit forecast of -5,864 million RMB for the same year [7][8] - The report highlights a projected increase in net profit for 2026 to 2,151 million RMB, with a significant growth rate of 120.5% anticipated for 2027 [7][8]