南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday are closely related to the US economy. The rare simultaneous increase of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil, along with a significant decline in US stocks, was due to factors such as rising long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, political crises, and trade geopolitical instability, which led to increased risk premiums and market risk - aversion. The subsequent fall in copper prices was a correction of the over - increase. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2511C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2]. 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reaching an agreement on tariff policies; increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and a rising lower support level [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations; a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies; and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US adjustment of copper tariff policies [4][5]. 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper futures is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai copper continuous - one is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); Shanghai copper continuous - three is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; and LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%) [4]. 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,190 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan (- 0.41%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 80,125 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan (- 0.39%); Guangdong Nanchu is 80,000 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan (- 0.35%); and Yangtze Non - ferrous is 80,230 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (- 0.43%). The spot premiums of various regions also showed different degrees of decline [7]. 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are also seen in the non - tax - included data [11]. 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [13]. 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the registered warehouse receipts are 142,275 tons, down 2,775 tons (- 1.91%); and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 16,100 tons, up 2,575 tons (19.04%) [15]. 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory - The total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) on a weekly basis [16]. 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [17].