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星源材质(300568):隔膜业务短期稍有承压,积极布局第二增长曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 100 million yuan, a decrease of 58.53% year-on-year [3]. - The company's membrane business is currently under pressure due to price declines in the membrane industry, but it is actively reducing production to stabilize prices and is expected to see effective overseas production capacity contributions from its Swedish and Malaysian bases by 2026 [4]. - Financial expenses have slightly increased, with a financial expense rate of approximately 7.07% in Q2 2025, but operating cash flow has significantly improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.26% [5]. - The company is strategically collaborating with Ruigu New Materials to develop high-performance solid electrolyte membranes, which is part of its proactive approach to establish a second growth curve [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 320 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 650 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 52.8, 35.4, and 25.8 [6]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 4.186 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.343 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 18% and 24% respectively [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.24 yuan in 2025 to 0.48 yuan in 2027 [8].