Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in household storage in Australia and the increasing demand for industrial and commercial storage solutions. The report highlights that the company's profits are at a low point but are expected to rebound due to favorable market conditions [5]. - The company specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage products, holding significant market shares globally. The report anticipates growth driven by global demand, expansion into emerging markets, and the introduction of high-power products [5][20]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,743 million - 2024: 2,711 million - 2025E: 2,897 million - 2026E: 3,456 million - 2027E: 4,320 million - The expected growth rates for total revenue are -16.0% in 2023, -27.6% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 6.9% in 2025, 19.3% in 2026, and 25.0% in 2027 [4][26]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 341 million - 2024: 259 million - 2025E: 271 million - 2026E: 386 million - 2027E: 503 million - The net profit growth rates are -59.8% in 2023, -24.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 4.9% in 2025, 42.1% in 2026, and 30.6% in 2027 [4][26]. Industry and Company Situation - The company is positioned as a leader in the differentiated niche market of household energy storage in Europe, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector due to global carbon neutrality efforts [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the European household storage market is stabilizing, the demand for industrial and commercial storage is rapidly increasing, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [5][20]. - The Australian household storage market is projected to grow significantly following government subsidies, with the company already establishing a local subsidiary to enhance service delivery [5][20]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes steady growth in global photovoltaic demand and a recovery in the European household storage market, with expected revenue growth rates for the company's grid-connected inverter business of 5% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5]. - For energy storage inverters and batteries, the anticipated revenue growth rates are 8% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5].
首航新能（301658）：首次覆盖：布局工商储+大储，受益澳洲户储增长