Broadcom(US:AVGO) Haitong Securities International·2025-09-05 08:04Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the industry, with a projected revenue growth of 24% year-over-year for Q4 FY25 [2][13]. Core Insights - The company anticipates Q4 FY25 consolidated revenue of $17.4 billion, with semiconductor revenue expected to reach $10.7 billion, reflecting a 30% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue projected at $6.2 billion, up 66% year-over-year [2][13]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in the operating margin for infrastructure software, which increased from 67% to 77% year-over-year, indicating successful integration of VMware [3][9]. - The AI semiconductor revenue for Q3 was $5.2 billion, marking a 63% increase year-over-year, and the company expects continued growth in FY2026, surpassing previous growth rate projections of 50-60% [4][9]. Financial Guidance - Q4 FY25 gross margins are expected to decline by approximately 70 basis points sequentially due to a higher mix of XPUs and wireless revenue [2][8]. - The non-GAAP tax rate is projected to remain at 14% for Q4 and the entire fiscal year 2025 [2][8]. Profitability Performance - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 78.4%, with semiconductor gross margin at 67% and infrastructure software gross margin at 93% [3][13]. - The operating margin improved to 65.5% in Q3, despite a 100 basis point decline in gross margin [3][13]. AI Strategy and Performance - The company has seen a consistent increase in AI semiconductor revenue, achieving 10 consecutive quarters of growth [4][9]. - A new customer has placed over $10 billion in orders for AI racks based on XPUs, expected to be delivered in Q3 FY2026 [5][14]. Cloud Strategy - The launch of VMware Cloud Foundation v9.0 provides a fully integrated cloud platform for enterprises to run various workloads, including AI [10][11]. - Over 90% of the top 10,000 customers have been successfully converted to VMware Cloud Foundation, although full deployment is still ongoing [11]. Orders and Backlog - The consolidated backlog reached a record $110 billion in Q3 2025, with semiconductors accounting for at least 50% of the total backlog [5][12]. - Non-AI semiconductor bookings increased by 23% year-over-year, and the total contract value for infrastructure software exceeded $8.4 billion in Q3 [5][14].