Jiayou International(SH:603871) Haitong Securities International·2025-09-05 10:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jiayou International, with a target price of 14.43 RMB, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price [5][8]. Core Insights - Jiayou International's performance in the first half of 2025 faced pressure, with a revenue decline of 11.99% year-on-year to 4.08 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders down 26.15% to 561 million RMB [9][10]. - The China-Mongolia business is expected to recover in the second half of 2025 due to rebounding coal prices and increased demand for Mongolian coal, with forecasts indicating a net profit of 1.32 billion RMB for 2025 [5][11]. - The company's African operations are showing strong growth, with a 34% increase in revenue from land port projects and a 40% increase in gross profit in the first half of 2025, contributing to future profit growth [11][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 8.67 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.9% from the previous year, followed by a significant increase to 11.08 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.32 billion RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase to 1.96 billion RMB by 2027 [5][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.96 RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.43 RMB by 2027 [5][4].