hbky(SH:600985) Huafu Securities·2025-09-05 11:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining coal prices, with a significant year-on-year revenue drop of 44.6% in H1 2025 and a net profit decrease of 64.9% [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement in production and sales volumes in Q2 2025, with coal production increasing by 6.8% and sales volume rising by 17.9% compared to the previous quarter [4][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its coal type and geographical advantages, leading to industry-leading coal prices, alongside potential capacity increases from new mining projects [6][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 20.61 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.0% [2]. - The coal business generated revenues of 5.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 41.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 49.1% decline [4]. - The average selling price of coal in H1 2025 was 835 yuan per ton, a decrease of 27.0% year-on-year [4]. Production and Sales - The total coal production for H1 2025 was 8.91 million tons, down 13.7% year-on-year, while sales volume was 6.48 million tons, down 19.4% [4]. - In Q2 2025, coal production was 4.6 million tons, with sales volume reaching 3.5 million tons, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase [4][3]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.68 billion, 3.25 billion, and 3.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.21, and 1.32 yuan per share [6]. - The company is expected to see growth from its coal chemical products, with significant increases in ethanol production volumes [5].