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萤石网络(688475):公司首次覆盖报告:硬件矩阵、软件升级构筑生态化,未来成长逻辑清晰

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of smart home hardware and IoT cloud platform services in China, leveraging a 2+5+N system to build an integrated AIoT ecosystem, driving performance growth through hardware and cloud platform synergy. The growth logic across various segments is clear, with expected steady profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [5][19]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.24 billion, 7.10 billion, and 8.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.8, 0.9, and 1.1 yuan, leading to a current PE ratio of 41.2, 36.2, and 30.4 times [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company originated from Hikvision and has developed a vertical integrated AIoT ecosystem through product and cloud service offerings. Its development has progressed through four stages, culminating in the current 2+5+N ecosystem upgrade [19][21]. Market Dynamics - The global smart home market is rapidly expanding, with a projected size of 174 billion USD by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 17.4% from 2020 to 2025. The penetration rate is expected to increase by 29.7% during the same period [7][55]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong technological foundation and continues to invest in AI algorithm development, enhancing its supply chain through increased self-production and the establishment of smart factories [6][19]. Future Outlook - The company has clear growth trajectories across its product lines, including smart cameras, smart entry systems, and service robots. The smart camera segment is expected to remain a primary growth driver, while the smart entry segment is rapidly expanding, with a projected revenue growth of 47.9% in 2024 [8][19]. Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with total revenue expected to rise from 48.41 billion yuan in 2023 to 62.53 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.3% [10][19]. The net profit is projected to recover and grow steadily after a temporary decline in 2024 due to increased marketing and R&D expenses [40][44].