山西焦煤（000983）：预计H1业绩下滑主因在于价格，反内卷政策下H2焦煤价格有望

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.23 CNY, while the current price is 6.75 CNY [5][18]. Core Views - The report anticipates a decline in H1 performance primarily due to price drops, but expects coal prices to stabilize in H2 under anti-involution policies. The company's high-quality coking coal resources are projected to continue leading the industry in pricing [2][3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 55,523 million CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6,771 million CNY, down 37.0% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.19 CNY [4][12]. - For 2025, total revenue is forecasted to decline to 38,382 million CNY, a decrease of 15.3%, while net profit is expected to drop to 2,200 million CNY, down 29.2% [4][12]. Performance Expectations - The company achieved total revenue of 18,053 million CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit of 1,014 million CNY, down 48.44% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 9,028 million CNY, a decline of 18.06% year-on-year [11][12]. - The report suggests that the pressure on profitability is gradually easing, with expectations of improved industry profitability starting in H2 2025, supported by price increases in coking coal [11][12]. Industry Context - The company is positioned as a leader in the coking coal sector, with a significant acquisition of coal and bauxite exploration rights in Shanxi, which is expected to enhance future growth potential [11][12]. - The report highlights that the company's coal revenue decline is primarily due to price reductions, while cost control measures have shown effectiveness, with operating costs decreasing by 14.82% in H1 2025 [11][12].