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量化择时周报:情绪指标维持震荡,关注短期分项变化-20250907

Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicator is currently at 3.2, indicating a high level of market sentiment, which is a slight increase from 2.9 the previous week, with a neutral outlook in the short term [2][8] - The price-volume consistency score has rapidly declined, suggesting a decrease in market activity and participation, while the trading volatility among industries continues to decrease, indicating a slowdown in capital flow [2][10] - The total transaction volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with the lowest daily transaction amount recorded at 23,483.59 billion RMB and a daily trading volume of 1,460.90 million shares [2][14] Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The industry trend has shown a rapid decline, with the PCR combined with the VIX indicator turning negative, indicating a decrease in hedging demand and potential accumulation of risks due to suppressed volatility [2][10] - The sectors with high capital congestion include comprehensive and electric equipment, which have seen significant price increases, while sectors like computer and electronics have high congestion but lower price increases [2][38] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as electric equipment, public utilities, and food and beverage are on the rise, with electric equipment achieving a short-term score of 100, indicating strong performance [2][31][32] Group 3: Investment Style and Strategy - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap growth styles, with a strong signal for large-cap stocks, while the short-term RSI for growth styles has significantly declined, suggesting a need for further monitoring [2][31][43] - The analysis of industry congestion indicates that low congestion sectors like defense, steel, and construction materials may present investment opportunities as risk appetite increases [2][38][39]