美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a gradual slowdown trend. Given the relationship between GDP, consumption growth, and employment growth, there is a high risk of economic stall if non - farm employment growth further slows. Thus, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is also increasing [2][10]. - The uncertainty of US fiscal balance has increased again. The US Federal Appellate Court recently ruled that most of President Trump's global tariffs are illegal but allowed them to continue until October 14. The US Supreme Court's subsequent ruling still has great uncertainty. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may seek congressional authorization for tariffs, and this process is also highly uncertain. If most of Trump's tariff policies are cancelled, it will have a significant impact on the US fiscal situation [2][12]. - During the initial stage of the Fed's restart of the interest rate cut cycle, 4% remains an important threshold for the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds. Given the increasing uncertainty of tariff policies, it is not advisable to chase long - term US Treasury bonds. Particular caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds reaches or falls below 4% [2][14]. - The producer price index continues to decline. In the week of September 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork from the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 27.00% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index increased by 2.15% week - on - week and decreased by 18.40% year - on - year. The price of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.01% and 0.38% week - on - week respectively. The domestic cement price index decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 0.55% week - on - week [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a slowdown trend. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is increasing [10]. 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources.