XUSHENG(SH:603305) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-08 07:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.096 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47%, with a gross margin of 21.78%, down 1.02 percentage points. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.22%. In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.29%, with a gross margin of 22.75%, up 1.10 percentage points year-on-year and 1.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue to reach 5.216 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 509 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22.2% [6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 21.7% in 2025 and 22.1% in 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.4% in 2025 and 8.1% in 2026 [6]. Business Drivers - The significant improvement in gross margin in Q2 2025 is attributed to the optimization of customer and product structures, transitioning from basic components to high-value system components, alongside the high gross margin of the energy storage business [7]. - The company has established a new growth curve through its energy storage, robotics, and magnesium alloy strategies, achieving approximately 300 million yuan in revenue from energy storage in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The establishment of production bases in Mexico and Thailand is expected to enhance local supply capabilities and support the company's integration into regional supply chains [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to competitive pressures in the end vehicle market, the company has adjusted its automotive revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards, with expected revenues of 41.6 billion yuan and 45.7 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 5.1 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.1 billion yuan in 2026, with a target price based on a 35x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current market value [7].